2009 CFL Western Preview - British Columbia Lions

Football Betting Lines

06/23/2009 - Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - West. 2008 Record - 12-8. Playoff Result: Lost, 22-18, to Calgary in divison finals. Stadium - B.C. Place. Capacity - 29,706. Colors - Orange, black and silver

Last season, had the Lions been playing in the East Division of the CFL they would have been tied for first place with Montreal, thanks to a points total that numbered 22. Instead, BC was third in the tougher West Division, the only team among the four with a losing record against the rest of its members.

This year general manager and head coach Wally Buono is hoping to move his squad up the totem pole and give it a better shot at postseason glory. The Lions' all-time leader in wins with 74, Buono has gotten his group into the postseason in each of the last six years and into the Grey Cup tilt in 2006, but the three-time CFL Coach of the Year still has something to prove.

Guiding the British Columbia offense in 2009 is Buck Pierce, the quarterback now entering his fifth season out of New Mexico State University. Pierce had his most successful season thus far in 2008 when he completed better than 64 percent of his pass attempts for 3,018 yards and 19 touchdowns. Much more a part of the offense a season ago, Pierce still has some kinks to work out after tossing nine interceptions.

Former Notre Dame product Jarious Jackson provides a dual threat for the Lions because he can both pass (2,164 yards and 17 TDs last season) and run (362 yards) to keep defenses off balance and give the BC offense a different look from time to time.

Not to be completely overlooked is second-year man Zac Champion, someone who could easily step in and make throws in a pinch for the Lions.

Wideout Terence Scott should be one of the go-to guys on the outside for Pierce, even though he is in his first year and has signed on as a free agent. O'Neil Wilson showed huge promise in just his third season back in 2006 when he played for Montreal, catching 92 balls for 1,056 yards and yet he failed to take any one of those into the end zone. A drop-off in production the last couple of seasons means he is due to bounce back.

At running back, Ian Smart figures to be the man getting most of the carries, considering how the depth chart is beginning to shape up with some other inexperienced runners. The knock on Smart is that he is prone to putting the ball on the turf, something he did seven times on just 32 carries two seasons ago. On average, Smart has dropped the ball, literally, once out of every five attempts, something that doesn't exactly make him the most reliable guy on the roster.

Even though he was not the primary ball carrier while at Iowa the last few years, being a part of that run-happy Hawkeyes group means that Damian Sims knows what it takes to be productive and that translates into him getting a chance to show what he has for the Lions.

During training camp, the defense, specifically lineman Gary Butler, didn't exactly seem to be rolling along with the program and was instead rolling with the punches against fullback Rolly Lumbala during drills.

Perhaps the biggest problem facing the Lions is finding a replacement for Defensive Player of the Year Cameron Wake, who after logging an astounding 23 sacks, headed to the Miami Dolphins and the NFL.

Just as bad, BC also saw three key linebackers fall off the roster in Jamall Johnson, Jason Pottinger and Otis Floyd, which means the unit in the middle is having to regroup before they get too deep into the schedule.

Former Saskatchewan linebacker Anton Mackenzie was picked up to try and fill the void, but that still leaves some huge gaps that need filling. Defensive end Nautyn McKay-Loescher was brought in to hopefully ease the pain of losing Wake, but that won't be easy by any stretch of the imagination.

Some inexperience and growing pains on both sides of the ball will probably keep the Lions from reaching their full potential in 2009, and that in turn will have them struggling in the division yet again. Will it keep British Columbia out of the playoffs? We shall see.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Finish: Fourth

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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