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01/16/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hansen and Union Rags ran their hearts out last November in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile with the former defeating the latter by a diminishing head. Hansen comes into 2012 undefeated in three starts while Union Rags has three wins in four tries.
Will either colt be able to bring home the roses on the first Saturday in May? If recent history is a guide, the answer is a resounding no. The last horse that finished first or second in the "Two-Year-Old of the Year" voting to make any noise in the Kentucky Derby was five years ago when Street Sense prevailed under Calvin Borel.
Hansen, who will make his three-year-old debut in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park in less than two weeks, did nothing wrong as a two-year-old. However, his running style (on the lead) and pedigree (both top and bottom) will prevent him from being a major player on May 5th.
Union Rags has a much more reasonable chance of crossing the finish line first at Churchill Downs, but in order to do so, he must correct his tendency to drift out through the stretch, something that has troubled him in two of four career races. In fact, had he run a straight course down the long Churchill stretch in the Juvenile, he would have defeated Hansen and remained unbeaten heading into 2012.
The son of Dixie Union will have just two starts before the Kentucky Derby beginning with the Fountain of Youth Stakes in late February, followed by the Florida Derby five weeks before the first Saturday in May.
One colt that should not be overlooked is Creative Cause. The third-place finisher (beaten only a length) in the BC Juvenile has lost only twice in five lifetime attempts. Nevertheless, there are question marks about his ability to get the 1 1/4-mile distance and the February 19th San Vicente Stakes at seven- furlongs will not provide any legitimate answers.
Trainer Todd Pletcher has his usual highly-rated bunch of three-year-olds aimed for Kentucky with Discreet Dancer, Gemologist and Algorithms leading the way.
Discreet Dancer is undefeated in two starts, including a track record performance in his debut. After winning that race by 9 3/4-lengths, the son of Discreet Cat overpowered an entry-level allowance field by 5 1/2-lengths, while running the mile in a solid 1:36 1/5.
His capacity to handle nine or even 10 furlongs remains an issue since his sire (Discreet Cat) was a miler and his dam's only other foal (Travelin Man) was a sprinter. Pletcher doesn't know when Discreet Dancer will run next but it's obvious a stakes appearance is in order.
Gemologist, as is the case with Union Rags, will make just two starts prior to the Derby. The WinStar Farm colt concluded his two-year-old campaign with an impressive victory over favored Ever So Lucky in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Gemologist has won two of his three races around two turns and since he is sired by Tiznow (whose progeny usually improve as they get older), look for him to be a major player on the road to Kentucky.
Algorithms has started just twice in his young career but both times the son of Bernardini proved best. He rolled by over five lengths in his debut last summer at Belmont Park and then hit the winner's circle once again at Gulfstream Park on December 16th defeating the highly-rated Consortium by a length. He is a little bit behind the early contenders since he has yet to race further than 6 1/2-furlongs. However, the bay colt will meet up with Hansen in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes later this month to prove he belongs.
OTHER POSSIBLE CHALLENGERS
Creative Cause is not the only star in California as Liaison, Out of Bounds, and Sky Kingdom could all become Kentucky Derby starters if they remain healthy.
Liaison has won back-to-back, two-turn, stakes events but questions will always come up about the 1 1/4-mile distance since Indian Charlie is his sire. Remember all the talk last spring about Uncle Mo (also sired by Indian Charlie) and how he failed miserably as the distances increased.
Out of Bounds was never involved in his initial race last October, but the Eoin Harty-trained colt has rebounded with a pair of victories, including the one-mile Sham Stakes at Santa Anita.
Sent off as the surprising 10-1 fourth choice, Out of Bounds collared the 1-2 favorite Secret Circle in the stretch to win by a half-length while completing the mile in 1:34 2/5 seconds. His next start will be the San Felipe Stakes on March 10th, followed by the Santa Anita Derby in early April.
Out of Bounds should be capable of winning at nine furlongs as his half- brother Etched and dam Unbridled Elaine had done so on multiple occasions. The big test will come in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby.
The 10-furlong distance will not be a problem for Sky Kingdom, who has won two of three races around two turns. The son of Empire Maker recently scored the easiest of victories in his first start on dirt as he mowed down Smart Ellis by 4 1/2-lengths, a number that could have been closer to 10 if jockey Martin Garcia had asked him for more through the stretch.
Previously, Sky Kingdom had run fourth in the Cash Call Futurity, a very good effort considering he was bumped at the start, which caused him to race further off the pace than usual.
As previously mentioned, Sky Kingdom is one of the few Kentucky Derby contenders bred for the 1 1/4-mile distance. His dam, Sky Beam, is a full- sister to 2008 Travers Stakes runner-up Mambo in Seattle, and his second dam, Weekend in Seattle, is a full-sister to 1992 Horse of the Year, A.P. Indy.
Other three-year-olds to watch in the coming month are Alpha, Sabercat, Rousing Sermon, Ever So Lucky, Brother Francis, I'll Have Another, Casual Trick, Fed Biz, Blingo, and Consulado.
JEFF FRANK'S INITIAL 2012 "DIRTY DOZEN"
1) Sky Kingdom; 2) Union Rags; 3) Algorithms; 4) Gemologist; 5) Discreet Dancer; 6) Hansen; 7) Alpha; 8) Out of Bounds; 9) Liaison; 10) Creative Cause; 11) Consortium; 12) Sabercat
<< Wagner makes huge leap in world rankings
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Johnson Wagner's victory Sunday at the
Sony Open in Hawaii eared him a huge leap in this week's world rankings.
Wagner rocketed up 106 spots to No. 92 this week after his two-stroke victory.
Luke Do
<< Stars' Ribeiro lands on IR
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Stars placed center Mike Ribeiro on
injured reserve Monday.
The move is retroactive to January 7, when he suffered a lower-body injury
against the Edmonton Oilers.
In 40 games this season, Ri
<< Anderson, Stalberg, Malkin named NHL's 'Three Stars'
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ottawa Senators goalie Craig Anderson,
Chicago Blackhawks left winger Viktor Stalberg, and Pittsburgh Penguins center
Evgeni Malkin have been named the NHL's 'Three Stars' for the week ending
January
<< Syracuse remains top team in men's hoops poll
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Syracuse is again the top team in the latest
Associated Press men's college basketball poll.
The Orange, after double-digit wins over Villanova and Providence last week,
again earned 60 first-place vote
Winning on the road is as tough as it sounds >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I wouldn't have wanted to be in Frank
Martin's locker room Saturday afternoon.
The same holds true for those of Roy Williams, or Tom Izzo or John Beilein.
Winning on the road is difficult in co
Royals sign C Pena to one-year deal >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kansas City Royals have avoided
arbitration with Brayan Pena, signing the catcher to a one-year contract.
The 30-year-old Pena batted .248 with 11 doubles, three home runs and 24 RBI
in 72 gam
Baylor still undisputed No. 1 in women's hoops >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Baylor remained a unanimous choice as the No.
1 team in the Associated Press women's college basketball poll.
The Lady Bears again received all 39 first-place votes and a total of 975
points from a nati
Pirates, Morton avoid arbitration >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Pirates agreed to terms with
pitcher Charlie Morton on a one-year contract, thus avoiding arbitration.
Morton made a career-high 29 starts for Pittsburgh in 2011, going 10-10 after
posting
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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After all the trouble that’s ensued since Braylon Edwards allegedly punched one of LeBron James’ homeboys in the face at a club, the Cleveland Browns have sent away their last remaining player of worth to the New York Jets. This is a great move for Dirty Sanchez and all, but it’s even better for the Knicks. Now Donnie Walsh can say, “You get to haunt Braylon Edwards with your posse if you sign here!” next summer.
Putting that aside for a moment, the move is a clear indication that the new-look Jets are gunning for the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think that New York thought that Dirty Sanchez was going to be such a rock star. With a 75.2 passer rating that was killed against the Jets, Sanchez is doing an admirable job of managing games and putting the Jets in a position to win. The defense has been the major story in New York thus far, but the acquisition of Braylon Edwards makes this offense loaded with talent that can dent any defense…as long as Dirty Sanchez continues his meteoric rise.
Thus far, Edwards has been a non-factor in the NFL piling up just 139 receiving yards on 10 catches. He has yet to find the endzone, and with the Browns mired in the most unsexy quarterback controversy of all time (Anderson vs. Quinn...yawn), there going nowhere fast. Edwards is two seasons removed from a career year which saw him catch 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns when the Browns were the spread killing monsters of 2007. In 2008, injuries slowed the receiver down to just 873 yards and three touchdowns though he played in all 16 games.
So that being said, we really don’t know if Braylon Edwards is just a flash in the pan, or a legit threat. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is a prototypical receiver. But he’s also shown a strange, and unwarranted, talent for dropping passes. Lining up opposite Jericho Cotchery, a speed demon with 23 catches, 356 yards and a single touchdown, may give Braylon the open looks he needs. A change of scenery may also rejuvenate the star receiver.
In return, the Browns will receive Chansi Stuckey, online football betting a special teams player you’ve never heard of and a pair of draft picks. That’s a tall order for a guy whose only real value right now is in his name, and it shows no promise to the Browns that they can rebuild around those acquisitions. Braylon was the only reason to hope for the Browns to go 3-14 SU this year. Without him, they don’t have a single guy on offense that can scare any team.
For the Jets, it’s a response to the pounding that they took at the hand of the Saints. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have averaged around 4.0 yards per carry each on the ground, but striking a fair balance between the passing and rushing attacks in New York has been a struggle. You have to believe that the trio of Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards will give Sanchez the weapons he needs to unleash through the air. Theoretically, that would open up holes for the rushing game. But the proposed public option health care plan works in theory too. We need to see the proof in the pudding before we start loading up mega bucks on the New York Jets to take the AFC.
The one wrinkle in this whole thing is that Braylon could very well be suspended by the league for disciplinary action due to his “brawl” with LeBron’s friend. If that’s the case, the Jets may have to bench him for a few games leaving them with a somewhat depleted receiving corps for a few games. Also, this is a guy who gets in fights with people at clubs. New York may not be the best place for him. Just sayin’.
The Jets have a long week before they meet the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football Betting in a virtual pick ‘em game. Braylon’s excess baggage may be a distraction, and his curiously low production may be what we should be expecting of him overall, but for the Jets, taking a chance to strike gold is well worth it. At the end of the year, they can simply just blame it on their rookie quarterback.
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