A wide-open Belmont Stakes

Horseracing Betting Lines

06/01/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Not since 2006 have the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners both failed to show up for the Belmont Stakes. That year the race was won by Jazil, a horse with just one win in seven career starts. This year, 12 colts and geldings are expected to enter the third leg of the Triple Crown and four of them have only recorded a single triumph.

Without Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky in the starting gate, Kentucky Derby runnerup Ice Box is expected to be the morning line favorite. The Nick Zito- trained colt exploded onto the scene with a nose victory over Pleasant Prince in the Florida Derby on March 20, and then might have been best in the Run for the Roses despite the second-place finish.

Two other three-year-olds that will take money at the betting windows are Fly Down, winner of the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park, and Preakness runnerup First Dude. The other nine horses will look to spring the upset the way Summer Bird (11-1) and Da' Tara (38-1) did the last two years.

In the first of two articles featuring the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes, I'll take a look at six expected longshots and try to make a case for each one, beginning with Spangled Star.

Trained by Richard Dutrow, who lost the Belmont (and the Triple Crown) with Big Brown in 2008, Spangled Star needed six races just to break his maiden. That win came on January 2 at Laurel by 4 1/4-lengths. His next start, and first for Dutrow, was in an entry level allowance/optional claimer on February 24. Spangled Star ran third at 7-2.

Dutrow then sent the chestnut colt into the Grade III Withers Stakes at Aqueduct against stablemate, D' Funnybone. Neither horse won the race as Afleet Again came from off the pace to reel in Ibboyee. Spangled Star got up for third at 28-1

Back in 2002, Sarava won the Belmont at odds of 70-1. Spangled Star won't be that high this Saturday but a victory will be considered even more of an upset since Sarava at least was a stakes winner heading into the race.

Dave in Dixie is another outsider that shouldn't even be entered. He hasn't won a race since last August and his last two attempts were a sixth-place finish in the San Felipe and a fifth-place effort, beaten 16 lengths, in the Illinois Derby. The race at Hawthorne was also his lone trek on traditional dirt so there is a good chance he prefers synthetics.

On the other hand, he did have viable excuses in both races as the two winners, Sidney's Candy and American Lion, won on the lead through slow internal fractions. Dave in Dixie is a horse that needs a very fast pace in front of him since he comes from way back.

The John Sadler trainee is also a horse that runs much better when fresh. That's important since this will be his first start since April 3 - the longest layoff of any of the 12 three-year-olds. If the Belmont pace is very fast, there's a small chance he could fill out the trifecta.

Uptowncharlybrown has not been able to put it all together after back-to-back wins in his first two starts. He ran a lackluster third to Rule and Schoolyard Dreams in the Sam F. Davis, and then finished fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby.

After the unfortunate death of trainer Alan Seewald prior to the Lexington Stakes, longtime assistant Linda White took over bringing in Garrett Gomez to ride. The son of Limehouse failed to grip the Polytrack surface early on, dropping back to next-to-last in the 1 1/16-mile event. However, the colt persevered and closed stoutly to finish third, beaten less than two lengths.

Kiaran McLaughlin is now in charge and he's been working his new three-year- old at Belmont Park in tandem with Trappe Shot.

Uptowncharlybrown should take to the Belmont surface and the distance should also suit. Nevertheless his ability to get the job done against top-flight three-year-olds is a major question mark.

Drosselmeyer is another colt that has had plenty of opportunities to shine. Unfortunately, something has always gone wrong in the end. His connections have now sought a change in jockeys as Mike Smith takes over for Kent Desormeaux, who rode the horse his last five starts.

Purchased for $600,000 as a yearling, the son of Distorted Humor won his first ever start on true dirt, breaking his maiden by six lengths as the 4-5 favorite. He won his next outing at nine furlongs and was then made the 2-1 favorite in the Risen Star Stakes.

Jumping up and winning a graded stakes race was not to be as Drosselmeyer hung like a chandelier in the fourth spot, losing by 1 3/4-lengths to Discreetly Mine. The Bill Mott-trainee was then let go at 9-2 in the Louisiana Derby and once again failed to fire late, finishing third to Mission Impazible by a full length.

Drosselmeyer sat out of the first two legs of the Triple Crown and prepped for the Belmont Stakes by running in the Dwyer on May 8. Sent off as the 7-10 favorite in the seven-horse race, the underachieving colt broke a couple of steps slow and trailed by four lengths right off the bat. He then switched from the rail to the four-path into the stretch and had zero answers for Fly Down, who cruised to a six-length win. One of these days Drosselmeyer will put it all together, but not this Saturday.

Stay Put is one of four horses in the race with three lifetime victories. (Ice Box, Fly Down and Interactif are the others.) He's also the only one of the four without a stakes victory. The son of Broken Vow is coming off a win on Derby Day in an allowance/optional claimer over the slop at Churchill Downs, but like Drosselmeyer, he couldn't get the job done in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, finishing fifth in the two Grade II events.

Stay Put needs a very fast pace in front of him and it's doubtful he'll get it on Saturday. He's also one of only two horses in the race that has failed to earn a Beyer figure over 90. The other is the longshot, Spangled Star.

Stately Victor caught lightning in a bottle at 40-1 in the Blue Grass Stakes and followed that effort up with a decent eighth-place finish in the Derby. Still, based on his running line in the Run for the Roses, he should have finished even higher.

Of the four horses that were in the back-of-the-pack early on, he ended up six lengths behind Ice Box, four in back of Make Music for Me and 1 3/4-lengths behind Lookin At Lucky.

It's true he made a much earlier move than that troika, but tiring at 1 1/4- miles will not help his chances at 1 1/2-miles. Remember, he's yet to win a race on conventional dirt as his two lifetime victories came on grass and over Polytrack.

Of these six longshots, only Drosselmeyer should be in the single-digit range. The betting public might also side with Uptowncharlybrown since he's never been higher than 4-1. Still, it's hard to back any one of these half-dozen colts as they seem up against it in the final leg of the Triple Crown.

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Football Betting

NFL Football Betting Online

The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.

Thursday, August 21

NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37

NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road

In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):

* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games

Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.

Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.

Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.

That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.

Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.

CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting odds .

Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

For more March Madness odds go to MySportsbook.com

For more College Basketball betting lines go to BettingExpress.com

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